8 Enter the narrative describing the rationale for enrollment trends and projections within the following categories below: Fall Undergraduate and Graduate Enrollment (First-time, transfer, and continuing): For the first time in several years our Fall FTE enrollment increased versus the prior year. Although our total fall headcount was down slightly, we believe the 1.6% increase in Fall FTE enrollment is a very positive sign. The increase was evenly distributed between undergraduate and graduate students. Our first-year class of 1,594 was our second straight cohort at goal which is a significant increase over the previous three years which averaged well below 1,500. We believe our goal of 1,600 is achievable moving forward due to demographic data and our institutional aid awards. Our new transfer numbers were up about 2% versus the prior year but still well below our internal target and behind our historical averages. Continuing students remain strong due to improvements in our retention and persistence rates over the past few years. Second-Year Persistence Rate: After improving our retention rate by 5% coming out of COVID and maintaining it within a 77% to 79% range for three consecutive years, we experienced a decline back to 75%. We have many initiatives in place and underway to help us increase our retention rate by 1% per year in hopes of getting back to 78% on a consistent basis moving forward. Six-Year Graduation Rate: Our six-year graduation rate has ranged from 52% to 56% over the past several years with our most recent year at 54%. We are striving to increase this graduation rate to 58% by 2026-27 which is in line with our goals to improve our retention and persistence rates over the same period. Unrestricted Institutional Aid (incorporate information outlined in the new multi-year layering institutional aid tab and how current aid strategies will impact the projection period): We began working with RNL on a financial aid optimization strategy in late 2019 and in order to land our fall 2020 class. Over that time our scholarship costs have increased from $4.2 million to over $12 million per year. We have now recruited four full cohorts under the new institutional aid strategy and reached a more consistent annual cost that is fully funded in our base budget. We have offset the increased costs each year through budget reductions and now increased appropriations, and we firmly believe that we have a sustainable model that will serve us well moving forward. Net Tuition Revenue: Now that we have four cohorts enrolled under the new merit scholarship model, we fully expect our net tuition revenue to stabilize and level out over the upcoming years. It had been consistently declining as we initially rolled out the plan and the State System held the tuition rate flat over the same period. We should see modest increases moving forward if we are able to hold enrollment flat. Enter the narrative describing enrollment assumptions, including supplemental enrollment chart from the CPP workbook. Regarding long-range enrollment trend projections, provide commentary on these trends and associated planning steps. We are projecting flat enrollment over the three future years which consists of a small decline in undergraduate enrollment offset by a modest increase in graduate enrollment. We believe our projections are reasonable and based on past performance as well as trends within the state of Pennsylvania. Preliminary 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 FY 2023-24 FY 2024-25 FY 2025-26 FY 2026-27 Number Enrolled First Year 1,604 1,635 1,392 1,521 1,487 1,595 1,594 1,594 1,550 1,600 1,600 Second-year Retention Rate 73.7% 74.4% 74.2% 77.4% 77.6% 79.3% 74.8% 74.8% 76.0% 77.0% 78.0% Number Retained to Second Year 1,246 1,194 1,213 1,077 1,181 1,179 1,193 1,193 1,211 1,194 1,248 Third-year Retention Rate 61.6% 63.1% 62.9% 64.5% 66.2% 64.7% 69.1% 69.1% 66.0% 67.0% 68.0% Number Retained to Third Year 1,145 1,067 1,009 1,055 921 984 1,028 1,028 1,053 1,068 1,054 Fourth-year Retention Rate 57.2% 57.9% 58.8% 59.4% 59.1% 60.0% 60.9% 60.9% 63.0% 63.5% 64.0% Number Retained to Fourth Year 1,017 1,077 994 953 967 835 927 926 937 1,013 1,020 Number Graduated by Year Four 655 697 701 665 666 567 n/a 627 625 678 685 Four-year Graduation Rate 36.8% 37.5% 41.5% 41.5% 40.7% 40.7% n/a 41.2% 42.0% 42.5% 43.0% Number Retained to Fifth Year 307 303 313 256 255 249 195 212 232 226 243 Undergraduate 7,489 7,391 7,204 6,941 6,697 6,511 6,431 6,431 6,423 6,406 6,399 Master's 808 878 940 908 935 911 944 944 950 965 971 Doctoral/First Professional 32 40 55 43 43 47 52 52 54 56 57 8,329 8,309 8,199 7,892 7,675 7,469 7,427 7,427 7,427 7,427 7,427 7,603.45 7,527.47 7,130.30 6,910.82 6,606.58 6,473.00 6,574.47 6,574.47 6,574.47 6,574.47 6,574.47 91% 91% 87% 88% 86% 87% 89% 87% 87% 87% 87% First-Time, Full-Time Cohort includes Bachelor degree-seeking students only. Enrollment by Program Level includes all students. Undergraduate Nondegree and Certificate-seeking students are included in Undergraduate, Graduate level Certificate, Non-degree, and Teacher Certifications are included in Master's category. Projections Total Headcount Total FTE Headcount to FTE conversion Historical Data First-Time, FullTime Cohort Progress to Undergraduate Degree Enrollment by Program Level (Headcount)
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